Predicting the Average Annual Exchange Rate of the Sudanese Pound from 1982 to 2022 Using ARIMA Models

Halima Abdullah, Alno Omniat Omer, Yousif Karrar Eissa Abdulrahman

Abstract: This study applies the Box-Jenkins methodology to model and predict the average annual exchange rate of the Sudanese pound against the US dollar, using secondary data from the Central Bank of Sudan spanning 1982 to 2022. Employing a descriptive-analytical approach, the research identifies the ARIMA (1,1,1) model as the best fit for the non-stationary time series, demonstrating high predictive accuracy. Forecasts suggest a rising exchange rate trend through 2032, offering valuable insights for Sudanese monetary policy authorities. The study underscores the utility of time series models in economic forecasting and recommends their adoption for strategic planning.

Keywords: predict- exchange rate- ARIMA models