Optimizing Urban Grid Integration: A Mathematical Model for Solar Power Forecasting and Economic Impact Assessment

Savar Girdhar

Abstract: India's shift toward renewable energy is central to its climate and development goals. Solar power integration into the current urban electrical grids is a critical opportunity but a pressing challenge. Indian cities need to speed up their shift to renewable energy. Despite being plentiful and clean, solar energy is erratic by its very nature, so its dependable integration into the grid depends heavily on precise forecasting and prudent financial planning. With an emphasis on how predictive mathematical models can improve solar power integration in Indian cities, this study explores the relationship between solar forecasting, urban infrastructure, and economic modeling. The study creates a forecasting model using historical weather and irradiance data, based on regional irradiance patterns, rooftop solar adoption trends, and grid constraints. This forecasting model is then connected to an economic assessment module that examines levelized cost of energy (LCOE), municipal savings, and consumer benefits. Significant potential exists for lowering electricity costs, enhancing grid reliability, and improving city-level energy planning, according to case study results from Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Delhi. The implications for infrastructure and urban governance are also examined in the paper, with a focus on the necessity of investing in smart technologies, updating policy frameworks, and requiring DISCOMs to forecast. To encourage scalable, fair, and forecast driven solar adoption in Indian cities, a comprehensive set of policy recommendations is put forth. The study offers a useful road map for incorporating solar energy into urban India's future by showcasing the advantages of both financial feasibility and predictive accuracy.

Keywords: solar forecasting, urban energy planning, economic modeling, grid integration, policy recommendations

How to Cite?: Savar Girdhar, "Optimizing Urban Grid Integration: A Mathematical Model for Solar Power Forecasting and Economic Impact Assessment", Volume 14 Issue 8, August 2025, International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), Pages: 1456-1459, https://www.ijsr.net/getabstract.php?paperid=SR25826114350, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21275/SR25826114350