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Research Paper | Computers in Biology and Medicine | India | Volume 12 Issue 9, September 2023

Predicting Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Over Time Utilising Multifaceted Health and Lifestyle Parameters

Suhaas Rao Badada | Mihir Gupta | Siddharth Gautam

Abstract: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain a major global health concern, responsible for a significant number of premature deaths worldwide. Early and accurate prediction of CVDs is crucial for timely intervention and effective management, potentially reducing the burden on healthcare systems. This research paper introduces a novel approach utilising machine learning models for predicting the likelihood of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) over time. Moreover, the proposed method leverages these predictive models to provide personalised recommendations to users, including lifestyle modifications or the need for immediate medical consultation. These recommendations are tailored based on the individual's current and projected risk factors, allowing for proactive and targeted preventive measures to mitigate CVD risks effectively. The dataset used in this study comprises a diverse range of lifestyle and medical risk factors, collected from a large cohort of patients with varying degrees of cardiovascular health. Several machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines and Boosting algorithms, were employed to predict the risk of developing CVD. In the initial phase of the research, data preprocessing techniques were applied to handle missing values, normalise features, and balance class distributions. Performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and F1 - score, AUC, ROC curves were utilised to evaluate the predictive capabilities of each model. Our findings reveal that ensemble methods, particularly random forests and gradient boosting, outperformed other algorithms, yielding higher accuracy and recall scores. Furthermore, these ensemble methods allowed for enhanced interpretability through feature importance analysis, enabling identification of key risk factors contributing to CVD prediction model development. In conclusion, this research highlights the potential of machine learning algorithms in accurately predicting cardiovascular disease risk, offering a valuable addition to the existing clinical risk assessment protocols. By leveraging these insights, healthcare providers can take proactive measures to reduce the incidence of CVD and improve patient outcomes. However, further validation and real - world deployment of the developed models are warranted to ascertain their efficacy in diverse healthcare settings.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Cardiovascular Disease (CVD), Precision, Recall, Area Under the Curve (AUC), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve

Edition: Volume 12 Issue 9, September 2023,

Pages: 888 - 893