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Analysis Study Research Paper | Hydrology Science | Morocco | Volume 11 Issue 11, November 2022
Frequency Analysis of Hydrological Events using Statistical Methods: Case of the Kert Watershed, Morocco
Imane Boutahri | Taieb Boumeaza | Rachida Elmorabet
Abstract: Floods are the most common natural disasters in the world, putting people and infrastructure at risk. Morocco, having an arid to semi-arid climate, is often faced with heavy rainfall events that can generate fatal floods. Projected variations in rainfall and estimated temperatures lead to an intensification of extreme events, requiring improved flood planning and water resource management. This research aims to provide a means for the prediction and forecasting of floods from the statistical data of flows collected and analyzed by the agencies of the hydraulic basin in Morocco. The objective of this study is to analyze the frequencies of floods in the Kert basin and to estimate the most appropriate frequency distribution of floods at the local scale for all the data relating to annual flood peaks. Four statistical distributions often considered in such cases, namely: the generalized logistical distribution, the generalized distribution of extreme values and the Pearson type 3 distributions, with and without logarithmic transformation, are evaluated by means of two robust goodness-of-fit tests for a large sampling of annual flood peaks. Adjustment assessments are analyzed from a variety of flood sampling characteristics, including annual maximum flows and instantaneous flood peaks. The flood quantiles obtained are compared with the real hypothetical quantiles to evaluate the quality of the prediction of the distribution considered. The results show that the generalized distribution of the extreme values is better than the other distributions considered because of its acceptance, for the two stations tested, and of its closest value to the estimated real hypothetical quantiles. This study provides the basis for recommending distribution for the local frequency analysis of floods in the Kert basin.
Keywords: Flood frequency analysis, statistical distribution, annual peak flow, Kert basin
Edition: Volume 11 Issue 11, November 2022,
Pages: 1289 - 1298