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Research Paper | Statistics | Kenya | Volume 7 Issue 6, June 2018

Modelling Extreme Maximum Rainfall Using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution: Case Study Kigali City

Uwimana Oliver | Joseph K. Mung'atu

Abstract: Extreme high Rainfall is a global phenomenon that occurs almost in all landscapes causing signicant damage such as ood that can destroy infrastructure, interrupt economic activities and retard development. Early detection of Extreme High Rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur. This research used statistical techniques to build models that can be used to predict Extreme high rainfall in Rwanda. The Methodology of EVT (Extreme Value Theory) was applied to model monthly rainfall, the forecasted results using the best model were compared with the observed data to check whether the obtained results show reasonably good agreement with the reality, this will be done by comparing dierence between empiric distribution function and tted distribution function. The model Quantile plot and return revel plot will be used to test the goodness of the model.

Keywords: Extreme Value Theory, Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Kigali Rainfalls, likelihood ration test

Edition: Volume 7 Issue 6, June 2018,

Pages: 121 - 126