International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
Call for Papers | Fully Refereed | Open Access | Double Blind Peer Reviewed

ISSN: 2319-7064


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Research Paper | Statistics | Saudi Arabia | Volume 4 Issue 2, February 2015


An Application of Markov Modeling to the Student Flow in Higher Education in Sudan

Dr. Rahmtalla Yousif Adam


Abstract: . This paper focuses on modeling students flow in educational system with a stochastic process depending mainly on Markov Chains to predict the number of graduate students for the coming years. This paper curried out in the high education system in Sudan under the enlargement of intakes during (2001-2011). The model has been applied to estimate the predicting number and ratios of students in different levels for graduate students after studying period without delaying, the ratio of whole graduations, the delaying ratio and dismissed students over the batches. The results indicated that The ratio of delaying seems to be decreasing all over the batches (61 %, 45 %, 42 %, 33 %). From the mean absolute error (MAE) test, the model shows that there is homogeneous and no significant difference in comparing the actual numbers with predicted numbers.


Keywords: Markov Chains, Transition matrix, batches, stochastic process, Kordofan


Edition: Volume 4 Issue 2, February 2015,


Pages: 49 - 54


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