Logistic Growth and Statistical Forecasting Models of Tourist Arrivals in Albania

Valentina Shehu, Oltiana Toshkollari

Abstract: Careful prediction of tourist arrivals is a principal factor in arrangement and administration of touristic activities. In the first part we use logistic growth to model and forecast the number of tourist arrivals. Following, an effort has been made to forecast tourists arrivals applying statistical time series modeling techniques. The results of Albania Tourist Area Life Cycle indicated that the midpoint of Life Cycle is year 2010, the duration of growth time is 13.6 years and the Carrying Capacity is 4, 886, 858 tourists. The time series analysis showed that the best model was ARIMA (2, 1, 2), and according to this model the number of tourists is expected to be 3, 101, 692 for year 2015. The Logistic differential equation, Exponential Smoothing techniques and ARIMA models all helped in the development of a better understanding the overall picture of the tourism story suggesting. This information is particularly useful for new investors and developers as well as longer term planners and government institutions

Keywords: Tourism forecast, Logistic model, time series analysis, Albania