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Research Paper | Statistics | Saudi Arabia | Volume 4 Issue 1, January 2015
Forecasting Infections by Tuberculosis in the Nile River State Sudan
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to find a time series model to forecast the number of infections by Tuberculosis in the River Nile state Sudan. The source of data is the national program to fight tuberculosis in the ministry of health and population of the Nile river state Sudan. Box and Jenkins models were used to find the model. Analysis done by Minitab package. The paper concluded that, the Cumulative Incidence rate of Tuberculosis for the period studied is 0.15 and the appropriate model to estimate infections of Tuberculosis in the Nike river stat is moving average model MA and the forecast of infections by Tuberculosis for the two coming years ranging from 74 to 140 case.
Keywords: tuberculosis, , incidence rate, moving average, autoregressive, moving average-autoregressive
Edition: Volume 4 Issue 1, January 2015,
Pages: 1461 - 1464