Climate Variability and Trend Analysis in the Semi-Arid Eastern Plains of Rajasthan: A Case Study of Jaipur District
Abstract: Jaipur District in eastern Rajasthan occupies a semi-arid setting where agriculture and water security depend almost entirely on the monsoon. This study examines long-term trends and variability in rainfall and temperature using data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Water Resources Department, Rajasthan, covering the period 1952 to 2017 for temperature and 1960 to 2017 for block-level rainfall. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and Sen's Slope Estimator were applied to detect and quantify trends. The UNEP Aridity Index, computed through the Penman-Monteith method for the period 1985 to 2015, was used to assess the changing degree of dryness. Results show that annual rainfall is declining at a rate of 2.448 mm per year, though not yet statistically significant, while mean annual temperature has risen significantly at 0.021 degrees Celsius per year. Spatially, 10 of 14 stations within the district record a negative rainfall trend, with Dudu station alone reaching statistical significance. Aridity increased from the first sub-period (1985-1999) to the second (2000-2015), with three of the five identified drought years falling in the second sub-period. These combined signals - declining rainfall, rising temperature, and deepening aridity - pose a serious risk to rain-fed agriculture across the district. The findings call for climate-sensitive water planning and adaptive agricultural practices at the district level.
Keywords: Climate Variability, Rainfall trend, Temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, Aridity Index, Semi-arid Rajasthan, Penman-Monteith Method
How to Cite?: Dr. Ravi Jhurawat, "Climate Variability and Trend Analysis in the Semi-Arid Eastern Plains of Rajasthan: A Case Study of Jaipur District", Volume 15 Issue 9, September 2026, International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), Pages: 1848-1860, https://www.ijsr.net/getabstract.php?paperid=SR26924234310, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21275/SR26924234310