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Research Paper | Economics | Volume 15 Issue 5, May 2026 | Pages: 959 - 968 | China
Energy Shocks from the Ukraine War and EU Regional GDP: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Analysis
Abstract: This study investigates how the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis affected regional GDP growth across European Union regions with different levels of energy intensity. Using panel data from 1,376 EU regions between 2020 and 2023, the study applies a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the differential impact of the energy shock on regional economic performance. Energy intensity is measured using the employment share in energy-intensive industries prior to the crisis. The results indicate a marginally significant positive differential effect for energy-intensive regions after 2022 (β3 = 0.0425, p = 0.096), suggesting that these regions experienced slightly stronger relative GDP growth than less energy-dependent regions. Parallel trends tests support the validity of the causal identification strategy. The findings imply that targeted policy support, temporary industrial adaptation, and sectoral heterogeneity may have contributed to short-term regional resilience. The study contributes to the literature on regional economic resilience, energy shocks, and EU cohesion policy by providing one of the first regional-level causal analyses of the economic effects of the Ukraine war energy crisis.
Keywords: Energy crisis, regional economics, difference-in-differences, Russia-Ukraine war, energy intensity, EU regional policy, economic resilience, quasi-experimental methods, causal inference, regional resilience, energy security, EU regions, and causal econometrics
How to Cite?: Rahima Rafik, Wang Wei, "Energy Shocks from the Ukraine War and EU Regional GDP: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Analysis", Volume 15 Issue 5, May 2026, International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), Pages: 959-968, https://www.ijsr.net/getabstract.php?paperid=SR26507115352, DOI: https://dx.dx.doi.org/10.21275/SR26507115352