Social-Sector Expenditure and Human-Development Outcomes Across Indian States: Evidence from a Mixed-Methods Study
Abstract: The study investigates the relationship between social-sector expenditure and specific human development outcomes across India's states. It employs absolute, GSDP-relative, and per-capita measures of spending and focuses on secondary school dropout and infant mortality. The study uses an explanatory sequential mixed-methods approach. The quantitative part uses a fixed-effects, time-series, cross-sectional analysis of state-level data for 28 states from 2021-22 to 2025-26, with outcome panels constrained by data availability. Spending observations extend from 2021-22 to 2025-26, whereas outcome observations are shorter. A survey of 25 purposively selected experts provides supplementary evidence on institutional and implementation factors. Average social-sector spending grew from 59,075 crore (2021-22) to 100,642 crore (2025-26). Of the six key fixed-effects spending coefficients, none were statistically significant. Education coefficients were all negative, and health coefficients were all positive. However, neither pattern was statistically significant; including 2024-25 RE in the education robustness models did not yield statistically significant coefficients. Experts assigned the highest descriptive priority to institutional capacity, implementation efficiency and fund utilisation; however, the differences in the six factors' rankings were not statistically significant (Friedman (5) = 9.389, p =.095). This does not mean social-sector spending has no impact. It only means that spending volume alone cannot account for the outcome variables included in this set of models. Policy evaluation should link budget allocation to implementation, service delivery, and outcome metrics.
Keywords: Social-sector expenditure; human development; Indian states; fixed-effects model; infant mortality; school dropout; institutional capacity
How to Cite?: Simritha S, Dr Patcha Bhujanga Rao, "Social-Sector Expenditure and Human-Development Outcomes Across Indian States: Evidence from a Mixed-Methods Study", Volume 15 Issue 10, October 2026, International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), Pages: 1119-1125, https://www.ijsr.net/getabstract.php?paperid=SR261017203212, DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.21275/SR261017203212