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Analysis Study Research Paper | Statistics | India | Volume 13 Issue 1, January 2024

Time Series Approach to Forecasting Birth Rate in India

Pankaj Kumar D. Parmar | Dr. Sanjay Patel

Abstract: This research study seeks to model and forecast the Birth rate in India using Box- Jenkins method. Yearly data from1960 to 2022 was collected from World Development Indicators (World Bank). SPSS statistical software, E-views and MS Excel were used for the analysis of the data. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was found to be the most suitable model with the least normalised Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values amidst the model test in the work. The developed model was then used to forecast for the years 2023 to 2030 and the results showed that the Birth rate will decrease in the next future years. In conclusion, it was established that there was a negative relationship between the dependent variable (Birth rate) and the independent variable (time/year).

Keywords: Time Series, Birth Rate, Box-Jenkins Method

Edition: Volume 13 Issue 1, January 2024,

Pages: 19 - 25