Predict Long-Term Average Monthly Temperature in Saudi Arabias Al-Baha Region using SARIMA Model

Salem Alzahrani

Abstract: In this paper, we predict average monthly temperature in Al-Baha region, Saudi Arabia, from June 2003 to December 2019, using SARIMA (Self-Regressive Seasonal Moving Average) techniques. A detailed explanation of model selection and prediction accuracy is provided. The results of the model analysis show that the proposed research approach obtains good predictive accuracy.

Keywords: Temperatures, Box-Jenkins, S ARIMA, Evaluation criteria