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Research Paper | Economics | Turkey | Volume 5 Issue 4, April 2016

Long and Short Term Relationship between Real Exchange Rate, Travel Revenues and Expenditure in Turkey during the Period of 2003:1-2016:1

Nazm CATALBAS

Abstract: The relationship between real exchange rate and travel revenue and expenditure in Turkey, monthly data for the period of 20031-20161 by means of the VAR model have been examined in this study. Findings have been interpreted by Johansen cointegration analysis, Granger (1969) causality test, impulse response analysis and variance disintegration. Johansen cointegration test results show that there is no cointegration between data in the long term and data act randomly. Granger causality test shows that there is a causality only from real exchange rate to travel expenses in the short time. These results point out that it must be attach more importance to customer satisfaction, service quality, promotion, accessibility to destinations, security and other factors rather than real exchange rate in order to increase travel earnings of Turkey.

Keywords: Tourism, Real Exchange Rate, Cointegration Analysis, VAR, Granger Causality

Edition: Volume 5 Issue 4, April 2016,

Pages: 1888 - 1898