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Research Paper | Management | India | Volume 7 Issue 6, June 2018

Exponential Smoothing of Postponement Rates of Gynecological Surgeries in a Tertiary Care Hospital-Time Series Forecasting with Regression Analysis

Momia Yashpal | Koushal Vipin | Talati Shweta | Hemant Bhagat

Abstract: Background Hospital contributes significant Tangible and Intangible resources on a concurred plan by the scheduling of surgery in OT List. Cancellation is a major problem in most hospitals. It is an inconvenience to doctors, patients and Management, which has a significant ripple effect. Postponement decreases efficiency by declining throughput leads to wastage of resources hence burden to the nation. Methodology Data of scheduled, performed and postponed surgeries was collected from all the operation theater with effect from March 1st to September 30th, 2018 and postponement rates were evaluated for Time series analysis and exponential smoothing and Moving average Technique. Results Total 958 surgeries were scheduled and 772 surgeries performed were and 186 surgeries were postponed with a postponement rate of 19.42 % in the Gynecology operation theaters the study period. Month-wise postponement Rate exponential smoothing of time series data shows the dynamic of operating suits. To test the throughput Postponement Rate was plotted with the postponed surgeries and on regression analysis they are in a perfect linear relationship. Hence throughput is responsible for the postponements.

Keywords: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Regression Analysis, ARIMA, DES, Operation Research, Forecasting, Optimization, Operation Theater

Edition: Volume 7 Issue 6, June 2018,

Pages: 1395 - 1400