International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed

ISSN: 2319-7064


Downloads: 5 | Weekly Hits: ⮙3 | Monthly Hits: ⮙3

Research Paper | Statistics | Nigeria | Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021


Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Intervention Model for Corruption Index in Nigeria

Sadiq Nafisatu, Nweze N. O., Ibrahim Ahmed, Mohammed Rilwan


Abstract: This study attempts an evaluation of the impact of Independent Corrupt Practice Commission (ICPC) on reduction of corrupt practices and related offences in the country. The study used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). However, the study used the basic pre-estimation tests to take care of the stationarity and cointegration of the series. It was noted that from the preintervention series, there is slow up and down trend in the series as a result of some components of time series. The series became stationary after the second difference with statistics values of -3.9754 and probability value of 0.02411 using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test type. Our findings reveals that the pre-intervention period could best be modelled with an ARIMA (1,2,0). As a result, the study recommends that the agency has to increase her manpower to meet up with exponential growth of the population and engage them in intelligence training that will help them curtail the practicing of corruption and also collaborate with stakeholders, international communities and some security related NGOs that can aid the realizations of the goals of the agency.


Keywords: Stationarity, Lag 0rder, Pre-intervention, Coitegration, Moving average, Time series, ICPC Nigeria, Modelling


Edition: Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021,


Pages: 734 - 744


How to Cite this Article?

Sadiq Nafisatu, Nweze N. O., Ibrahim Ahmed, Mohammed Rilwan, "Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Intervention Model for Corruption Index in Nigeria", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/get_abstract.php?paper_id=SR21812004830, Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021, 734 - 744

How to Share this Article?

Enter Your Email Address


Similar Articles with Keyword 'Stationarity'

Downloads: 76

Research Paper, Statistics, Rwanda, Volume 7 Issue 11, November 2018

Pages: 375 - 380

Forecasting the Unit Price of Coffee Export in Rwanda Using Arima Model

MWANGABWOBA Janvier; Dr. Joseph K. Mung'atu

Share this Article

Downloads: 82

Research Paper, Statistics, Rwanda, Volume 7 Issue 11, November 2018

Pages: 130 - 133

Modelling the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Balance of Trade Components in Rwanda (2005-2012)

Ndayambaje Godefroid; Joseph Mung'atu

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'Moving average'

Downloads: 21

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 10 Issue 4, April 2021

Pages: 379 - 382

Stock Market Prediction using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA)

K Murali, Sk Nafeez Umar, D Chandrakesavulu Naidu, MP Reddeppa Reddy, C Mani, B Ramana Murthy

Share this Article

Downloads: 61

Research Paper, Statistics, Saudi Arabia, Volume 9 Issue 9, September 2020

Pages: 1375 - 1381

Predict Long-Term Average Monthly Temperature in Saudi Arabias Al-Baha Region using SARIMA Model

Salem Alzahrani

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'Time series'

Downloads: 21

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 10 Issue 4, April 2021

Pages: 379 - 382

Stock Market Prediction using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA)

K Murali, Sk Nafeez Umar, D Chandrakesavulu Naidu, MP Reddeppa Reddy, C Mani, B Ramana Murthy

Share this Article

Downloads: 47

Research Paper, Statistics, Rwanda, Volume 6 Issue 10, October 2017

Pages: 913 - 918

Forecasting Drought in Rwanda Using Time Series Approach Case Study: Bugesera District

Gashumba Kaminuza Pascal; Dr. Joseph K. Mung'atu

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'Modelling'

Downloads: 3 | Weekly Hits: ⮙1 | Monthly Hits: ⮙1

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021

Pages: 235 - 247

Modelling Wind Speed on Some Meteorological Variables as a Source of Power Generation

Ahmed Ibrahim, Nweze N. O.

Share this Article

Downloads: 34

Research Paper, Statistics, Kenya, Volume 4 Issue 9, September 2015

Pages: 1216 - 1224

Spatial Temporal Modelling of Tuberculosis in Kenya Using Small Area Estimation

Kipruto H; Mung?atu J; Ogila K; Adem A; Mwalili S; Kibuchi E; Ong'ang'o JR; Sang G

Share this Article
Top