Statistical Modeling of Electricity Prices using Time Series Model
International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
www.ijsr.net | Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed International Journal

ISSN: 2319-7064

Research Paper | Statistics | Kenya | Volume 3 Issue 11, November 2014

Statistical Modeling of Electricity Prices using Time Series Model

Mwangi Charles, Prof. Ali Islam, Dr Luke Orawo, Olivia Wanjeri

Forecasting electric power prices of a competitive market is important to providing estimates of electricity prices for future days. Forecasting results can be used by generation companies for bidding in the market strategically. The forecast can also be used by the transmission companies can plan a head for scheduling short-term generator outages and design load response programs. The aim of this study is to determine the best model for forecasting the prices of electricity in a competitive market. Thus, we will compare the AR, MA, GARCH, and ARCH model. The study also aims at providing the estimates of electricity prices based on the best model. Other variables that provide energy in the industries will be used to test on the validity of the model. The ARMAX model indicated to be the better than the GARCH model in modeling the electricity prices.

Keywords: AR-model, MA-model, GARCH-model, ARCH-model, stationary,

Edition: Volume 3 Issue 11, November 2014

Pages: 1405 - 1409

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How to Cite this Article?

Mwangi Charles, Prof. Ali Islam, Dr Luke Orawo, Olivia Wanjeri, "Statistical Modeling of Electricity Prices using Time Series Model", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/search_index_results_paperid.php?id=OCT14888, Volume 3 Issue 11, November 2014, 1405 - 1409

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