International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
Since Year 2012 | Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed

ISSN: 2319-7064




Downloads: 170

Research Paper | Management | Rwanda | Volume 8 Issue 6, June 2019


Time Series Modeling of Determinants of Road Accident Mortalities in Rwanda: A Case of Kigali City

Nyawanda Marygorretty Achieng | Dr. Patrick Mulyungi [110]


Abstract: Despite the stringent measures that Rwanda government has instituted to ensure safety in our roads and reduce accidents, there is still an upward trend in the number of road accident occurrences in Rwanda. The general purpose of this study was to model road accident mortalities in Rwanda. Specifically to assess the influence of nature of road on road accidents mortalities in Rwanda, to determine the influence of nature of vehicle on road accident mortalities in Rwanda, to analyze the influence of drivers condition on road accident mortalities in Rwanda and lastly to compare poison regression and negative binomial regression in modeling road accident mortalities in Rwanda. Time series data for a period of 10 years ranging from 2008 to 2017 was utilized in this research. The study adopted descriptive quantitative design approach. Moreover itís also more of an explanatory research design. Data was sourced from Rwanda National Police and WHO database and NISR Statistical Yearbooks. The researcher analyzed the data using Eviews and R software after which the results were presented in form of tables and graphs. The findings indicated that nature of road, nature of vehicle and driversí condition have a positive significant influence on road accident mortalities in Rwanda. Driverís condition was the most cause of road accident mortalities in Rwanda within the study period. Further, the Negative binomial is superior to Poisson regression in modeling road accidents in Rwanda. The study recommends that the government should give much focus to driverís conditions in order to reduce road accidents in Rwanda. Moreover, more traffic to be deployed in roads near residential and commercial places in addition to enhancing control department to conduct thorough check on all vehicles to ensure vehicles on the roads are in good condition. This research is of essential benefit to the Rwandan government and the various road users since they are able to know the critical factors that contribute to the persistent rise in road accidents hence able to take caution in order to reverse the trend of road accidents in Rwanda.


Keywords: Road Accident, Mortality, Generalized linear models


Edition: Volume 8 Issue 6, June 2019,


Pages: 506 - 513

Time Series Modeling of Determinants of Road Accident Mortalities in Rwanda: A Case of Kigali City


How to Cite this Article?

Nyawanda Marygorretty Achieng, Dr. Patrick Mulyungi, "Time Series Modeling of Determinants of Road Accident Mortalities in Rwanda: A Case of Kigali City", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/get_abstract.php?paper_id=ART20198538, Volume 8 Issue 6, June 2019, 506 - 513, #ijsrnet

How to Share this Article?

Enter Your Email Address




Similar Articles with Keyword 'Mortality'

Downloads: 0

Research Paper, Management, India, Volume 9 Issue 11, November 2020

Pages: 1577 - 1581

Global Challenges and Opportunities Post Pandemic

Rebecca F. D'souza

Share this Article

Downloads: 102

Research Paper, Management, Ethiopia, Volume 9 Issue 8, August 2020

Pages: 1169 - 1175

Effectiveness of Medication Management Process Using FMEA Approach-Arba Minch Government General Hospital-Ethiopia

Krishnasamy Srinivasan [5] | Balaji Raju | Getasew Yaregal Desalew [3]

Share this Article


Top