International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed

ISSN: 2319-7064


Downloads: 198

M.Tech / M.E / PhD Thesis | Statistics | Congo | Volume 8 Issue 4, April 2019


Modeling Tax Revenues Using Kernel Approach Case Study: North Kivu Province (Democratic Republic of Congo) Tax Revenues Time Series Forecasting

Byamungu Wanguwabo David


Abstract: Forecasting the distribution of tax revenues in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been an uphill task. The recent past of the country has been dominated by economic uncertainty, particularly in mining and in agricultural products (cash crops) meant for export. This factor alone has greatly contributed to high volatility of tax revenues collected by the custom officers. The fuzzy characteristic of Tax Revenues has made it quite impossible for researcher to detect or distinguish from randomness the three well known components of a classical time series, precisely Trends, Seasonality, and cyclical phenomena. Hence parametric methods, however rich appear not to be suitable at all to produce reliable forecasts. The current project focuses on modeling tax revenues time series using nonparametric method, mainly the kernel approach. Several kernels have been discussed in literature. In this project, due to its optimal property, the Epanechnikov kernel is used as an index kernel to model the time series under investigation. Other commonly kernels, including the Parzen, Gaussian, Biweight, cosine, rectangle, triangle and the alternative Epanechnikov (epan2) kernels have been used to fit the dataset and their performance compared with the index kernel. By default, the Gaussian and the alternative Epanechnikov kernels performed very close to the index kernel. Having chosen to use, for comparison purposes, the Epanechnikov, the Gaussian and the alternative Epanechnikov kernels, an optimal choice of the bandwidth has been discussed through the kernel weighted polynomial smoothing setup. Two crucial aspects of the problem were evaluated, including the degree of the polynomial that precisely fit the data points and the level of the bandwidth that is required to achieve bell-fit. To this end, the performance of the Epanechnikov, the Gaussian and the alternative Epanechnikov (epan2) kernel using kernel weighted polynomial of degrees 1, 3 and 7 for different values of the bandwidth, precisely for h = {1, 5, 7, 10} has been examined. As expected, findings suggest unequivocally that the higher the degree of the kernel weighted local polynomial smoothing combined with the smallest value of the bandwidth, the better is the fit of the kernel used to the tax revenues data. Hence, to predict or forecast tax revenues, either the Epanechnikov, the Gaussian or the alternative Epanechnikov (epan2) kernel can be used, with a careful choice of the pair (p, h) where p is the degree of the polynomial which is assumed to be reasonably high and h is the optimal bandwidth.


Keywords: Tax income revenues, kernel estimation, MISE, bandwith, forecasting


Edition: Volume 8 Issue 4, April 2019,


Pages: 85 - 95


How to Cite this Article?

Byamungu Wanguwabo David, "Modeling Tax Revenues Using Kernel Approach Case Study: North Kivu Province (Democratic Republic of Congo) Tax Revenues Time Series Forecasting", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/get_abstract.php?paper_id=ART20196280, Volume 8 Issue 4, April 2019, 85 - 95

How to Share this Article?

Enter Your Email Address


Similar Articles with Keyword 'MISE'

Downloads: 50

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 9 Issue 12, December 2020

Pages: 1603 - 1610

Poisson Inverse NHE Distribution with Theory and Applications

Arun Kumar Chaudhary, Vijay Kumar

Share this Article

Downloads: 133

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 6 Issue 12, December 2017

Pages: 764 - 774

Reporting Innovations and Adaptations Employed for Statistical Evaluation of Efficacy of Human Embryonic Stem Cell Therapy in Spinal Cord Injury Cases

Dr. Geeta Shroff, Dr. Jitendra Kumar Barthakur

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'forecasting'

Downloads: 3

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021

Pages: 235 - 247

Modelling Wind Speed on Some Meteorological Variables as a Source of Power Generation

Ahmed Ibrahim, Nweze N. O.

Share this Article

Downloads: 31

Case Studies, Statistics, Saudi Arabia, Volume 10 Issue 2, February 2021

Pages: 952 - 955

Forecasting Students Performance: A Case Study at Tabuk University

Mohamed Zidan, Atif Ali Yassin, Gafar Haroun

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'Tax'

Downloads: 109

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 8 Issue 11, November 2019

Pages: 1199 - 1204

On the Construction of Kumaraswamy-Epsilon Distribution with Applications

Gongsin Isaac Esbond, Saporu W. O. Funmilayo

Share this Article

Downloads: 129

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 5 Issue 6, June 2016

Pages: 887 - 893

Applicability of Chi-Square Test in Popularity Assessment of Newspapers ? A Study of Hyderabad

P. Rajini, N. Chandan Babu, Raju Kommarajula

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'income'

Downloads: 0

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021

Pages: 248 - 249

Sectoral Impact of Poverty on Production of Livestock Products in India

Firdous Ansari

Share this Article

Downloads: 0

Case Studies, Statistics, Congo (DRC), Volume 10 Issue 11, November 2021

Pages: 975 - 979

Contribution of Survival Mechanisms and Strategies Relating to the Promotion of Socio-Economic Household Development (Case of Volunteer Leavers of Kolwezi, 2014-2020)

Jacques Bajika Kalombo

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'kernel'

Downloads: 103

Review Papers, Statistics, India, Volume 9 Issue 9, September 2020

Pages: 750 - 754

Choice of the Bandwidth in Kernel Density Estimation

Onrina Chandra

Share this Article

Downloads: 108

Research Paper, Statistics, China, Volume 6 Issue 9, September 2017

Pages: 1128 - 1134

Least Square Regression with Non-Identical Unbounded Sampling and Coefficient Regularization

Xinxin Chang, Lu Luo

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'estimation'

Downloads: 5 | Monthly Hits: ⮙1

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 10 Issue 8, August 2021

Pages: 734 - 744

Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Intervention Model for Corruption Index in Nigeria

Sadiq Nafisatu, Nweze N. O., Ibrahim Ahmed, Mohammed Rilwan

Share this Article

Downloads: 34

Research Paper, Statistics, Kenya, Volume 4 Issue 9, September 2015

Pages: 1216 - 1224

Spatial Temporal Modelling of Tuberculosis in Kenya Using Small Area Estimation

Kipruto H; Mung?atu J; Ogila K; Adem A; Mwalili S; Kibuchi E; Ong'ang'o JR; Sang G

Share this Article
Top