International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed

ISSN: 2319-7064




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Research Paper | Mathematics | Kenya | Volume 3 Issue 6, June 2014


Modeling the Inflation Rates in Liberia SARIMA Approach

Roland Fannoh, George Otieno Orwa, Joseph K. Mungatu


Abstract: Inflation measures the relative changes in the prices of commodities and services over a period of time. It is necessary to know the pattern of inflation in the country in order to formulate better policies that will control the inflation rates. In this paper; we used Box Jenkins methodology to build an ARIMA model for Liberias monthly inflation rates for the period January 2006 to December 2013 with a total of Ninety Six (96) data points. The result showed that ARIMA model was appropriate for modelling the inflation rates. ARCH-LM test and Ljung-box test performed on the residuals showed no evidence of ARCH effect and serial correlation respectively. Lastly; a 12 months forecast for the year 2013 with the model revealed that Liberia is likely to experience single digit inflation values. In glow of the forecasted result; we recommend that vigorous monetary policies and appropriate economic measure be adopted by government and some policy makers to make certain that the single digit inflation values aim is met.


Keywords: SARIMA models, Box Jenkins, Forecasting, Liberia, Inflation


Edition: Volume 3 Issue 6, June 2014,


Pages: 1360 - 1367


How to Cite this Article?

Roland Fannoh, George Otieno Orwa, Joseph K. Mungatu, "Modeling the Inflation Rates in Liberia SARIMA Approach", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/get_abstract.php?paper_id=2014445, Volume 3 Issue 6, June 2014, 1360 - 1367

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