International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed

ISSN: 2319-7064


Downloads: 128

Research Paper | Information Technology | Bhutan | Volume 2 Issue 9, September 2013


Forecasting Tourist Inflow in Bhutan using Seasonal ARIMA

Elangbam Haridev Singh


Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to generate one-period-ahead forecasts of international tourism demand for Bhutan by selecting appropriate model both ARIMA as well as exponential smoothing. Before selecting an appropriate model, formal stationary tests has been applied in this paper and finds that, the series are stationary at level. Secondly, in order to get a good estimation, this paper has identified the autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) of the entire period of the data. Therefore, the future demand of tourism is forecast based on the combination of AR and MA, which known as ARMA model. In this paper, the competing models have been thoroughly investigated when the model adequacy has been checked before the best combination of ARIMA model was selected. During the diagnostic stage we came to know that the data has a seasonal components thus, the best fitted ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) with seasonal effects or well known as SARIMA approaches has been suggested through this study and the forecasting process is based on this combination.


Keywords: Forecasting, Tourism, ARIMA, Seasonal ARIMA


Edition: Volume 2 Issue 9, September 2013,


Pages: 242 - 245


How to Cite this Article?

Elangbam Haridev Singh, "Forecasting Tourist Inflow in Bhutan using Seasonal ARIMA", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/get_abstract.php?paper_id=10091306, Volume 2 Issue 9, September 2013, 242 - 245

How to Share this Article?

Enter Your Email Address


Similar Articles with Keyword 'Forecasting'

Downloads: 107

Research Paper, Information Technology, India, Volume 3 Issue 12, December 2014

Pages: 1896 - 1900

Determining and Exploring Dimensions in Subspace Clustering for Value Decomposition

Saranya Sagambari Devi.S

Share this Article

Downloads: 119 | Monthly Hits: ⮙1

Research Paper, Information Technology, India, Volume 4 Issue 4, April 2015

Pages: 1817 - 1820

Forecasting of Stock Market through Trends and Patterns using Time Series Analysis

Parmeet Arora, D. Hemavathi

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'Tourism'

Downloads: 109

Review Papers, Information Technology, Malaysia, Volume 4 Issue 5, May 2015

Pages: 1532 - 1536

Cloud Computing: Cloud Adoption in Professional Practice

Nadhirah binti Nazri, Jamaludin Ibrahim

Share this Article

Downloads: 114

Research Paper, Information Technology, Nepal, Volume 9 Issue 1, January 2020

Pages: 719 - 724

Dimensions of Digital Nepal Framework and Appropriate Roadmap

Shailendra Giri

Share this Article
Top