Modeling and Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Exportation: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach
International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR)
www.ijsr.net | Open Access | Fully Refereed | Peer Reviewed International Journal

ISSN: 2319-7064

Research Paper | Statistics | Nigeria | Volume 2 Issue 12, December 2013

Modeling and Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Exportation: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach

Kayode Ayinde, Habib Abdulwahab

In the last few decades, crude oil (petroleum) has claimed the topmost position in Nigerian export list, constituting a very fundamental change in the structure of Nigerian international trade. This paper is intended to model and forecast Nigerian monthly crude oil exportation (in barrels) by applying seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) into the same data collected between January, 2002 to December, 2011. Result reveals an upward trend of the series which became stationary at 1st difference, a sharp drop between 2007 and 2009 and autocorrelation function with significant spikes at lag 1, 7 and 12 suggesting the presence of seasonality in the series. Based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC) and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion (HQC), the best model was SARIMA (1, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 1) 12. The diagnosis on such model was confirmed, the error was white noise, presence of no serial correlation and a forecast for current and future values within 24 months period was made which indicates that the crude oil exportation is fairly unstable.

Keywords: SARIMA Model, BIC, Forecasting, Crude Oil Exportation

Edition: Volume 2 Issue 12, December 2013

Pages: 245 - 249

Share this Article

How to Cite this Article?

Kayode Ayinde, Habib Abdulwahab, "Modeling and Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Exportation: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach", International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), https://www.ijsr.net/search_index_results_paperid.php?id=02013401, Volume 2 Issue 12, December 2013, 245 - 249

136 PDF Views | 104 PDF Downloads

Download Article PDF



Similar Articles with Keyword 'SARIMA Model'

Research Paper, Statistics, Saudi Arabia, Volume 9 Issue 9, September 2020

Pages: 1375 - 1381

Predict Long-Term Average Monthly Temperature in Saudi Arabias Al-Baha Region using SARIMA Model

Salem Alzahrani

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 2 Issue 12, December 2013

Pages: 245 - 249

Modeling and Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Exportation: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach

Kayode Ayinde, Habib Abdulwahab

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Sri Lanka, Volume 7 Issue 9, September 2018

Pages: 415 - 419

Modelling and Forecasting Inflation Rates in Sri Lanka

Aboobucker Haalisha, Aboobucker Jahufer

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'BIC'

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 3 Issue 7, July 2014

Pages: 1002 - 1006

Forecasting of Areca Nut (Areca catechu) Yield Using Arima Model for Uttara Kannada District of Karnataka

Srinath Reddy A. B., Havaldar Y. N., Pavan Kumar S. T., Adam Kamei

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Kenya, Volume 3 Issue 3, March 2014

Pages: 730 - 734

Factors that Determine Monthly Revenue Returns from Mobile Payments in Kenya

Kyalo Richard, Waititu Anthony, Wanjoya Anthony

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 8 Issue 1, January 2019

Pages: 1233 - 1237

Predictor Envelopes and Standard Regression Models: An Empirical Juxtaposition

Joseph Bamidele Odeyemi

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 2 Issue 12, December 2013

Pages: 245 - 249

Modeling and Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Exportation: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach

Kayode Ayinde, Habib Abdulwahab

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Nigeria, Volume 7 Issue 4, April 2018

Pages: 1777 - 1782

Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) for Large Datasets to Determine the Effect of Air Pollution on Human Health

A. O. Ochugboju, A.Yawe, H. A. Odiniya, A. A. Musa

Share this Article

Similar Articles with Keyword 'Forecasting'

Case Studies, Statistics, Saudi Arabia, Volume 10 Issue 2, February 2021

Pages: 952 - 955

Forecasting Students Performance: A Case Study at Tabuk University

Mohamed Zidan, Atif Ali Yassin, Gafar Haroun

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, India, Volume 9 Issue 12, December 2020

Pages: 1556 - 1561

Forecasting of Cotton Production in Nagpur District of Maharashtra India

Mayuri Barai, Gangesh Yadav, Abhay Khamborkar

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Rwanda, Volume 6 Issue 10, October 2017

Pages: 913 - 918

Forecasting Drought in Rwanda Using Time Series Approach Case Study: Bugesera District

Gashumba Kaminuza Pascal; Dr. Joseph K. Mung'atu

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Rwanda, Volume 7 Issue 11, November 2018

Pages: 375 - 380

Forecasting the Unit Price of Coffee Export in Rwanda Using Arima Model

MWANGABWOBA Janvier; Dr. Joseph K. Mung'atu

Share this Article

Research Paper, Statistics, Saudi Arabia, Volume 4 Issue 1, January 2015

Pages: 1461 - 1464

Forecasting Infections by Tuberculosis in the Nile River State "Sudan"

Dr. Abdalla Ahmed, Alkhalifa Abdalla

Share this Article
Top